Labor statistics without political spin

 

The Presidential tenure in the USA is four years.  Since the beginning of the labor statistics the average tenure has created 6 million new jobs.  That is the target for each President in the USA to meet.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Since 1939 we have created 105 million new jobs. This 105 million tells that the existing jobs tend to disappear fairly quickly while new ones are created.  So, don’t count on working the same job through your life as this change is even accelerating.  

During this recorded time we have had huge changes in jobs with largest monthly job losses reaching almost 2 million e.g. in September 1945 when the WW II ended.  This loss was followed by 0.9 million new jobs already in the following March alone. 

With 310 million population growing at 0.88% per year the USA should generate between 125,000 – 145,000 new jobs each month.  Since 1939 we have actually averaged some 125,000 new jobs per month.  

Unfortunately, during the current administration’s first tenure the new job creation has been the lowest recorded being as close to a statistical zero as one can get.  During the second tenure it appears to be clear that about 50,000 new jobs per month will be the final tally.  This grim as cruel for the ordinary people as it can get.  The country has lost about 7-8 million jobs during these two tenures and many of them deliberately.

What happened?   

 

 

Wars are supposed to create jobs as so much material and labor gets wasted and soldiers need plenty of support personnel to keep them doing their duties. 

The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were simply too small to counter the deliberate export of the so called simplistic jobs overseas by our corporations.  The most naive ideological theory of the “neocons” was to create almost overnight new consumers to places like China and India that would buy our high value added products and with that support our living standards.  They still do not comprehend that the people everywhere are much smarter than that. 

This whole effort was camouflaged and sold to American people under the mantra of helping the people by spreading democracy and all the related nonsense while we actually were reaching for supremacy on all energy resources around the globe.  Of course everybody out there knew what we were after including perhaps even  90% of all Americans.  The official policy just did not admit to any of simple observations that all painted a crystal clear picture to everybody else outside the “denial circle” and more so outside the borders of the USA.  Those outside just played the game as the big guns have had always a destructive power.

 

 

Why give GM $18 billion – buy it and start generating millions of new jobs!

Why give GM US$ 18 billion when the tax payer can buy it with US$ 3 billion?

Here is what the Congress should do instead. The Europeans, the Chinese and the Japanese are doing it already

1. The Government should use this US$ 3 billion and buy GM to have the ability to redirect all GM’s activities as outlined below (2-12).

2. Chrysler became worthless after they abandoned the smarter guys at Mercedes Benz. Chrysler is bankrupt and it would be best for all of us to let it disappear. If not, then the only option left is to merge it with the new GM immediately after the Government owns it.

3. The management in Ford is smart and the company will survive without any help from Congress or anybody else.

4. As Michel Moore said, transporting Americans is one of the most important functions our government must address. Here the only real way to do it is to buy GM to force this change to happen. The guys running it will never do it. They just burn that US$ 18 billion and after the smoke disappears they just come for more.

5. Franklin Roosevelt when facing a huge crisis ordered the auto industry to stop building cars and instead build tanks and planes – and it was done!

6. Our current crisis is different and the solution is also different.

7. In Europe, e.g. in Spain the country is building high speed trains and train lines all over the country including the connection to the rest of the Europe that is waking up to the same change. Why will they all recognize this needed change?

8. It is because it is less expensive and more convenient for people to use a high speed train on all flights that last up to about two (2) hours.

9. This results to huge saving in the use of the fossil fuels.

10. The airplanes can be competitive only on the long flights as most of us has always “known”intuitively.

11. The Big 3 (now 2) are to build only cars that do not use fossil fuel as their primary source of energy and even more importantly they must start building trains, buses, subways and light rail. A corresponding public works projects across the country will build the rail lines and tracks.

12. This all will not only save millions of jobs, but will create millions of new ones

What happens next you can check from http://www.galacticwind.com/eternity/Future.htm

“Mark to Market” is No 1 in Bubble Making!

We all know that a business has no value without a projected positive cash flow.  It makes no difference how much steel and concrete has been poured if the positive cash flow is not in the pipeline the business has no value. 

The new buzz-word  “Mark to Market” valuation of everything is an illusion of real value as markets can be easily manipulated by the pundits who control most of the news Media.   Fortunately these pundits can not manipulate the cash flow for a business without spreading false rumors or creating a boycott!  The first one is actually in constant used in a subtle ways.

The demand to use “Mark to Market” valuation for the loan collaterals was a huge mistake as everybody suddenly wanted to get rid of all securitized mortgages.  All of them were not bad though more than a usual number of the underlying debts were not performing.  As the books were not clear it was not obvious how to connect the actual properties with the mortgages.  With this the whole packages became suspect and nobody wanted to buy them and “Mark to Market” made them all almost worthless – even if they have lost value but not that much.   Anyhow, whoever had these unwanted hot potatoes in their hands would hear instantly that they needed more collateral to stay in business.

FED is now using the same method for analyzing the corporations claiming that in orderly market conditions the price that the investors are willing to pay for the shares of a company is a fair value for that company.   This is a fast process as anybody with a PC and a brokerage account can download even the whole US stock market data much faster than they can make a local phone call.  FED uses now just the current share value to evaluate the value of a company at the moment.  This is a highly unreliable way to determine real value for any company.  But it is fast.  With this FED has abandoned the laborious calculations and fact finding missions to check the quarterly and annual reports for income and costs and their future projections.  Each company must do this all just  to survive and the tax authorities use these same numbers to determine the tax liability. 

Only a positive cash flow in the future pipeline can ever make any real money.  At any given moment this all can be condensed to a numeric value as current dollars in form of Net Present Value (NPV) using any desired interest rate that the owners want to earn for their investment money -  something around 18% is common.  If we just continue behind that and divide this number by the outstanding shares we get an exact value for the share price at that moment.  If done manually it is a hard task but any PC will do it all faster than you can think.

We must also remember that we buy everything with current dollars, not inflation corrected ones that are used to hide the facts from the voting cattle on the street.   It is kind of trick used when reporting a 30% increase in export value during the past year.  A reason to be proud of course but don’t forget that Euro rose much more against the dollar during that same time period.  It looks that we got the shorter stick.

FED claims that during ordinary markets the company share price will reflect it’s real value at reasonable accuracy.  Good luck!   After reading countless analyst reports and listening countless conference calls one has started wondering the amount of total garbage we see in far too many of these reports.  It is no wonder that already a large number of major international conglomerates have stopped informing the analysts and not just by whim.   They have let the independents to analyze these reports and the impact of the comments to their businesses and all have concluded: NO MORE.  They have told bluntly to all their analysts: ‘from now on you must read our web pages like our shareholders, you will not get any direct information. In the past we have told you our plans and schedules and anything you have asked but you hardly never print them correctly and with that you have done more harm than good to our businesses.’

The analysts are financially competent but often lack the ability to understand all the technologies that are involved, some of which will in due time be the most pervasive new technologies impacting our lives.  

This is not the case with the pundits from above – they are continuously searching for these special companies as they will in due time be the for a while the most lucrative businesses on the planet – like Microsoft, Google, etc.  

The pundits have created an illusion of market segments that rotate continuously allowing each others a short dominant position during the more dominant 4-5 year business cycle.  We still have to hear a water tight explanation why these business cycles must exist and why they last 4-5 years at the time.  It would be equally interesting to hear also why the pundits occasionally predict a W bottom for a business cycle and voila – it happens!  Then why do they not see that we are already in a recession when every sole on the street can separate it as easy as they can separate the day from the night.  They also have to explain why the same sector have several peak performance during the economic cycle, etc.

in real life we now have stock markets moving several percent points up or down in a day.  This is was not that common earlier and certainly this does not support the claim of “ordinary markets” that FED is looking for. 

It is also interesting that lately the share price swings of individual companies are now almost always more than 10% up or down after the company reports their latest results  and the analysts who have been combing their books continuously express their disappointments or positive surprises to the Media.  How come these smart guys and gals did not notice these changes while doing their work.  With grey hair one has become more and more cynical as having just a call and put round the stock one can not avoid making money with this kind of share price change – GE was 13.4% lower at on point on April 11^th.  This is in sane, the total value of GE did not change 13.4% regardless what their quarterly result was – somebody simply stole money from someone else during that day, specially from all those who panicked.

Is it all just a blip or something else?   

This share price manipulation processes run by the pundits is very efficient. 

SEC has helped streamlined all further when the so called “up-tick” rule while shorting the stocks was removed last summer.  This rule was put to work after the 1929 depression to protect the investors from at the time obvious share price manipulations that contributed to the overall market crash.  

The pundits have mastered the play with human fears and made the fear their closest ally.  To play the game they don’t need to be as rich as Mr. Soros, Mr. Gates, or the Oracle of Omaha.  However, some wealth is necessary and a discipline to follow the proven path:

1.       When they have zeroed in to their next target they start the play with relentless short selling of shares of the company.  They keep pressure on day in, day out, as long as it takes – and it does not take that long at all to take it down (they don’t need to own the shares of the target company to sell short, they just “borrow” these shares from the brokers).

2.       The small shareholders see a sudden high volume and sinking share price.  After a few days they start calling the company asking explanation.  Of course the company has no idea and can only try to calm their shareholders – all plans and financial numbers are solid

3.       The selling does not stop and one by one the shareholders will invariably lose their faith, panic and then sell to save at least some of their life long savings and soon enough the full panic sets in  The share price plummets to almost nothing while some strangers are still buying!

4.       The pressure increases fast if the company has any debt.  The largest debtors will stop the game demanding instant bankruptcy proceedings as the collateral is now almost gone.  

5.       Then a miracle, a “White Knight” rides to surface from nowhere and is hailed as the savior for the company.  The Knight has enough cash to rearrange all debts and even to make an offer to pay all still outstanding shares.  This is the reality out there even if this story is simplified.

6.       During the past few years we have seen increasing numbers of these almost criminal takeovers where good solid companies are stolen in full daylight from their powerless shareholders.  Some call this to be capitalism but during the Hammurabi’s rule these thieves would have found a swift verdict.

There is only one way to fight these semi-criminal gangs.  But unfortunately, the people at large do not understand the math, and companies are not always willing to reveal the inner finances and plans in public.  Perhaps they do not realize that very smart consultants are doing nothing else than combing the industries around the globe for opportunities.  Often these specialists know more of the companies and especially their future opportunities than these companies themselves.  They don’t always dwell on tiny details of the business but rather look them in context of their survival through the ongoing global changes. 

The pundits know this all  too and are already plotting battle tactics against their next victims.   If they time it well, like they will, they launch the attack before the protective shields are up.  When that happens the company has no change to survive the short selling especially when combined with a smartly executed suggestively  campaigns.

The only protection is openness and publicity of what is going on in the company.  The internet has become a tool in this and it must be used:

• The company must keep a continuously updated projection of it’s past and future revenues, operating expenses,  investment s, taxes,  financing costs, administration, sales and all other costs clearly visible and understandable form on the company’s web site.  
• The company must show the current Net Present Value (NPV) projection of the company using 18% discount rate – a rate that some old money in the world is using as their cut of rate for new investments. 
• They must show their major shareholders and shares outstanding.   They must divide the NPV with the shares and show a number indicating the real value of each share as these numbers tell.   No more no less, just a simple number.  

The shareholders know now the facts and can act as they see best fit for them.  They should only know that this would be a value of the share if everything would go as planned and also know that everything will only rarely go exactly as it was planned.

Could this ever kill the crooks?   Just look our presidential campaign.  It used to be clear to everybody that the Elephants would have money to spend and the Donkeys would struggle to get any.  Something has happened?  The internet is suddenly creating more than enough money for the most appealing candidates - and all comes in small donations.   The Elephants are more than worried as from now on whoever is the most appealing as a candidate will have no shortage of the funds.  The Sun King of France once said:  “The one with most money will win the war!”

So, why would this kill the pundits.  It is all so similar.  When a shareholder knows the value of a share of the company like it is, perhaps not as solid value as the money in the bank but still it is a solid number, the pundits have no alternative but move away.

FOR more with the US$ 500 Trillion global derivatives bubble (info from BIS Switzerland) check:

www.galacticwind.com/eternity/index.htm

 

Global Warming – The Untold Part of The Story…

The Helium content in the sun has a major fluctuation period at 100,000 years as is visible from the last 650,000 years of ice core records taken from Antarctica.  This heating / cooling cycle works like a candle after the heart burrows itself into wax creating a cavity.  When this cavity becomes deeper the flame starts flickering at a steady frequency.  The reason is a periodic lack of oxygen that prevents the wax from burning properly.  A large flame forms when oxygen is readily available and the heated air expands the same time.  The oxygen is quickly consumed und the flame starts dying while the hot air raises up.  The flame is now almost gone but oxygen can again reach the heart of the candle and the cycle begins again. 

As said above our Sun is a Hydrogen fusion reactor that is held together by her own gravity converting Hydrogen to Helium at a steady pace.  However, the Helium is also fuel for yet another very hot fusion reaction but the concentration of the Helium must first reach a certain level, density and temperature before it can ignite.  That happens at least once in each 100,000 years.  This happened last time some 15,000 years ago and Helium is still fusing and the earth is heating up.  It appears that this Heliun fusion reaction might last 30-40,000 years and dies away.

In the next phase the the ice cap above Greenland becomes unstable and “falls” more or less orderly way into North Atlantic and with that the level of all oceans raise 6-8 meters.  With that the earth’s ability to absorb heat from the Sun gets diminished as more of the radiation from the Sun gets reflected away from the larger water surface.  Another perhaps even more important factor comes to play simultaneously as the now the cooler oceans can absorb more gases from the atmosphere, including all greenhouse gases. The earth starts cooling down.  Unfortunately the Helium reaction in the Sun may not be over yet and soon enough like 5 to 10,000 years later the temperature of the earth starts going up again.  The ice cap on Greenland has not thickened that much as of yet and depending on how long the heating continues a small part of Antarctica, about equal in size with Greenland is becoming also unstable.  If that ice cap section follows the path of Greenland we get yet an added 6 meters into Ocean level.  However, with this we have now enough fresh cold water in oceans to cool them down even more and that starts clearing the atmosphere from the remaining greenhouse gases.  With this going on the earth is in “free fall” to another deep freeze with ocean level dropping some 120 meters below the present.  It would go even further but now the 100,000 cycle is complete and the Sun has enough Helium that ignites again.

As recently as only 20,000 years ago the earth was at the bottom of the last “deep freeze” and at that time the water line was low enough to provide a “thousand mile wide highway” for everything to move freely between Alaska and Siberia. 

We know that we can do plenty to reduce the extremes already with our current knowledge and perhaps later we can even control this phenomena equally like we have built dams on rivers to tame the floods and to provide water over the dry season.  The process is in principle similar, it only requires taming the heat.  This will involve water, ice, plants and atmosphere, all in all it is a little more complex than a river dam but it can be done if we have the political will to do it.  But do we really have a choice – the alternative is a global war over resources and survival of the fittest! (theory by M&M, what we can do and should do is shown at http://www.galacticwind.com/indwarm.html ) 

Health Care – Hillary still does not get it…

There is absolutely no need of any bureaucracy to dwell around our basic health care.   

An insurance means that someone out there will get a cut from our health care payments.  Today this someone else maintains a phony image of an important insurance business that is necessary to bring the “best health care” in the world to the Americans.   It appears just unnecessary to know how the other well to do countries manage without this specific insurance layer.  

Funny as it sounds, but as these countries do not have this specific insurance layer it is actually very easy to understand why people there are healthier and live much longer and even happier lives!   

Somene will likely now simply say, just go there and stay there you idiot!   This is a more serious issue as today perhaps already several million of the better to do Americans are  considering just that.   It would not be only them, it would be their pensions and their wealth.  We can not afford that regardless how walthy we think we are.   Each one million of them could easily take a wealth of US$ 1 million with them and that adds to US$ 1 Trillion.  That is about equal amount of money than the cost of the war in Iraq has been so far and the pensions would still be running.

It also appears to be totally unknown in the USA that people in the free world are free to buy anything they want, and that include also a private health care insurance.  Many there actually carry one.  For them it is a little luxury like a second or third car here and it is used exactly like the second or third car is used here.

As Hillary has it, we will still have an all inclusive private insurance system regardless how she packages it.  As a result there will be huge hoards of people involved who do nothing but shovel unnecessary paperwork back and forth to allocate and sort the bills to large number of insurance businesses with a much larger number of insurance policies.  These policies all contain an option to reject practically any claim if the profitability of the insurance company ever is threatened.   It is important to realize that not even one from these insurance businesses will ever provide any kind of health care to the people here.

In comparison:

We do not buy defense and intelligence insurances against hostile Nations - we pay our military and intelligence services from our taxes.

We do not buy police protection insurance – we pay our police from our taxes

We do not pay international border violation insurance – we pay our border guards from our taxes

We do not buy road and bridge insurance – we pay our roads from our taxes.

We do not buy education insurance - we finance our public schools from our taxes.

Etc, etc….

Summary:  Hillary and the others do not really care and with that it will be business as usual.   We continue to have the same two parties with the same ”old boys and girls” going back to Congress after next elections to “write in laws all the premade decisions that impact our future”.   The sad part is that less known elitistic think tanks make all the decisions that affect us.   This is the real reason why nothing ever changes regardless which of the two parties is in power – some in Congress are well aware of this elitism but still have no ”gusto” to make the right decisions for our Nation.    A real third party might help breaking this lock but these two will never allow this to happen.  Perhaps when the recent immigrants realize their hopeless faith they learn to ignore their differences and finally get it done.

See also the one below…

Hillary’s health plan is Irresponsible

None of the Presidential candidate health plans including Ms. Clinton will fix our broken Health Care System.  The plans actually prevent any meaningful health care reform from ever happening.   It all would be hopeless but the 50 plus generation is waking up and it also holds a trump card that no political party dares to challenge.  This generation is much more than upset from everything that is done in the name of the health care to the Americans!

1. We don’t need health Insurance, we need comprehensive tax payer funded Free for All Health Care.

2. The Congress must leave the Insurance Industry and Pharmacies free hands to do whatever they want to do.  The purchasing of medicines from abroad like Canada must be legal.  The public will take care of the rest. 

3. Clinton & Al., should only do the above and then step aside and stay aside.  The health care of the people belongs to the hands of doctors, nurses and hospitals, just let the people decide it all. 

4. Mingling with the Insurance Industry has been very costly for the tax payers.  Today this waste is already US$ 800 Billion per year to be exact.  Of course this same US$ 800 Billion is the reason why the Congress wants to be involved but that has to end.

5. Never forget that our Health Care Insurance Industry runs the largest industrial scam ever implemented in the civilized World.  This scam is even larger than the war industry has been able to assemble.

To read the facts and details check: http://www.galacticwind.com/eternity/index.htm